Study: Public Opinion Could Predict Terrorism

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Can public attitudes predict future terrorist attacks? According to a September 2009 study, evidence suggests when people of one country disapprove of the leadership of another country there is greater likelihood of international terrorism by groups from the original country. Authored by the Czech Academy of Sciences and Alan Krueger (prior to becoming the appointed Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the Department of Treasury) the study was published in Science Magazine.

Researchers conducted surveys in 19 countries across the Middle East and North Africa and compared the results with terrorist attack reports during a four year period (2004- 2008). The results of the study showed a 20 percentage point increase in the disapproval rating of a country’s leaders was associated with a 93 percent increase in the number of terrorist attacks originating from that country. In an interview for Science Magazine, Kruger admitted that other factors such as historical animosities and economics are contributing factors to terrorist attacks, but he emphasized leaders and the descions they make play a critical role. Speaking about potentially changing the attitudes across the Middle East, Kruger said, “The election of Barack Obama…may lead to a reduction in public disapproval toward the leadership of the United States.”